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US 7/10 War Plans

Updated: Apr 20

 
"US thought Israel might flatten Gaza. So they mafia-style partnered and imposed un-winnable restrictions of urban warfare without civilian casualties."

So, I've spoken to a lot of my Israeli-born friends, and they were ecstatic. They said, look at this, the United States has come to rescue us, they've come to free us, to help us. This is our best friend in the world.

Now, I'm talking about people who are on the right side of the spectrum, and they continue to think. This is why, what I said earlier, we have to push this message. Those of us who are listening in today, and viewing in today, have to remind the message that countries change, and the United States has changed, and maybe we have changed Israel as well.

But, so they were very excited to have these two aircraft carriers come. But when you start thinking about it, why do I need an aircraft carrier to fight Hamas? And why do I need an aircraft carrier to fight Hezbollah?

Hezbollah and Hamas, as we know, combine four, zero aircraft, they have zero tanks, so the power is really redundant, right?

That's a redundant power. Israel already has complete control of the skies. There's no need for us to bring more airplanes, American airplanes, to the battlefield. In addition, Biden said, we won't be sending troops into Gaza or anywhere else anyway.

So what does the aircraft carrier have to do to deter Iran? Now, the question there we have to say to them is, okay, if you want to deter Iran, go to Iran, go to the Straits of Hormuz, why do you have to sit out here?

And we also could understand that from when the Trump administration assassinated Soleimani, very popular general, Iran didn't do anything. They threw some missiles, they blew up some sand near US facilities, but they didn't really react for the most part.

So if Iran was looking to confront the United States or to get into such a battle, they would have done it then. Not to mention the internal discord in Iran, and they have a lot more problems than we hear about.

Now, okay, so we say, what are these aircraft carriers doing? Maybe they're here to fight for Yemen, right? To fight for Yemen. To fight against the Yemen attacks. But we've seen that Jordan can knock down those missiles, Saudi Arabia can knock them down. We have airplanes that can knock them down. Again, it's a redundant power.

So we continue along our line and we say, okay, what is going on here? And this has to do again with us being the Commonwealth and the United States can make good use of this opportunity. And this opportunity has to do with China.

The United States showed that in one week, the United States is able to mobilize two aircraft carriers across the world. The aircraft carriers obviously come with a tremendous amount of resources. So if China were to do anything, for example, against Taiwan, China is now on notice that the United States can bring significant firepower to Taiwan, to China in a week. So that's one of the first major showings here.

The second, of course, is a show to Russia. To remind Russia, the United States for decades has been the power in the Middle East. Now since the Obama administration and Russia was in Syria, then Russia all of a sudden had some sway here. So now by Biden and the United States coming in, because Biden, don't forget, is up there in age, right? So he is of the mentality still, even though he's a Democrat, he's still of the mentality that the United States is the world policeman. So he still brings his forces to the Middle East to remind Russia that the United States has not gone away.

So finally, we get to, OK, very nice story, Ariel, but we're talking about Gaza, right? So what's going on with Gaza? So the reason to come here for the United States, for Gaza, is not to help Israel. It's to tie Israel's hands, to partner with Israel, coming in like the mafia and saying, we're going to work on this together. We're going to do this together.

And now what you're going to do, I'm going to switch your war into kind of a war where you have complete dominance. But now what you have to do is go into urban warfare, into a place that's going to be much worse than Fallujah, because it's going to be entrenched for decades waiting for the ground invasion. So now you're going to have to go into Gaza. You're going to have to do a precision attack. And you know what? You can't have civilian casualties. So good luck with this.

So now we're in a situation where we just cannot win. There's no way to win this war, at least not with the leadership we have and the approach that they've taken to the U.S. administration and to the U.S. I would imagine if I could sit in the White House and see the discussions that they had that day, they maybe woke up Joe, they said, hey, Joe, you have to hear what's going on. XYZ showed him a few pictures and they said, oh, my goodness, Bibi is going to flatten Gaza.

And we can't have that for a number of reasons that can't be. But nonetheless, what did they respond? And I think it's a pretty ingenious response that they did do, which is, I would say, almost like a mafia style coming in. They partnered with Bibi.

And not that Bibi was unwilling. Now, the first day Bibi's phone calls were directly to Biden. But now back to Bibi. He completely, it seems to me, understands what the threats are and when it was not too long ago, when there was a transition of power here in Israel to Bennett. Bibi gave two warnings. He said pretty much it was in the Knesset and he said, you have to worry about these two things.

First of all, he said, worry about Iran. They gave a whole slew of reasons. We don't have to go through them. It's pretty obvious. And the second one, he said, was you have to be able to have the courage like I did and the strength to stand up to American pressure. So Bibi fully gets all of this.

Russia and China, for example, they have had their own issues, as we all know, and they don't show really any restraint when they deal with when they have dealt with those issues by any means. So frankly, Russia and China, I don't see them really caring much about Gaza. What they do care about, which is exactly what you've said, they brought in because Israel has so closely aligned itself in this case with the United States, subservient to the United States, as opposed to being a friend of the United States.

And in this case, because of the way that things are, everything is, of course, very polarized. China and Russia have said, OK, if you have decided that you are with the United States, therefore you cannot be with me. Right.

So that's why we have some of the strongest rhetoric from Russia and from China that we've heard against Israel, mainly because exactly what you said, we've aligned so closely with the United States. Aside from their international elements, meaning Russia, China, those which are kind of bonuses for them. I think they want to see pretty much status quo after the war and then heading into the two state solution, coupled with a deal with Saudi Arabia.

I think the American ideal, again, even that saying the American ideal is tough to say, but I think that their general long term goal and their ideal solution from this would be to remove Hamas from the entire calculation. They're resorting to, again, by default because there's no one else, to the Palestinian Authority coming in, which would, again, have a deal coming together with Saudi Arabia and make one big, nice, happy ending. Yes, I would agree that they're on board to eliminate Hamas and they have made and we have copied a very, very delicate effort to distinguish between Hamas and Gaza.

And I think that's how the narrative was framed very early to say that there is Hamas and then there is Gaza. To get into that is a whole other story, but that's how it's been framed. And I think with that goal in mind is that if Hamas were to be removed, the Palestinian Authorities all of a sudden a very, very friendly element to be shepherding this new two state solution in, again, not my opinion, but my view of what the American goal would be.

Of course, as the Gulut mentality, after thousands of years, years of living in someone else's house and requesting and keeping a low profile, it becomes extremely difficult to then come and assert yourself as the balabait, as the as the homeowner, as the boss. I think we see that particularly with those of us who were born in Galut in exile. But we also see it for those who were born here.

And I think we see it often in Israeli culture. And I'll give you a little story where I have some distant cousins. And I remember it was during Eurovision and Israel made it to, I don't know, the finals or some high place in Eurovision. And one of my cousins said, wrote on the WhatsApp group, wow, we're finally on the map. And I remember thinking, no, we have been the map for centuries. We've always been the map.

We have to end on a positive note, because I know we have some things that people might roll their eyes at. So I heard from a good friend of mine who's a rough and he explained this. He said, historically, if we took any Jew from almost any time period, any location, and we brought them to the land of Israel today and they saw our Jewish army and our Jewish police and open worship and the shuls and the society that we live in.

And what would they say? They would say, you are living in the times of Mashiach. So as we go through all these topics and write in these things that may be disappointing to hear, we have to put it into perspective. And last time we also mentioned another perspective is that had we been discussed, if we had the same topic 30, 40, 50, 60 years ago, we'd be discussing war against bona fide armies, war against armies with tanks and airplanes.

So we have to remember that the trajectory of Am Yisrael and Medinat Yisrael is continuing to go up and that we're very privileged to be living in these times and to be seeing these times.

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ArielAvidar@BenDavidConsultants.com

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